Conditional inference trees (CIT) and conditional inference forests (CIF) reduce split-selection bias by testing features before choosing split thresholds, but repeated permutation tests and threshold searches can make these methods computationally expensive. We study CIT and CIF as top-$k$ feature-ranking methods for downstream prediction using real-data benchmarks, runtime ablations, and synthetic feature-recovery experiments. At a fixed node, if the features and permutation budget do not depend on the node responses, Bonferroni-corrected $+1$ Monte Carlo permutation $p$-values control nodewise rejection under the complete permutation null. CIF ranks 4th among 17 classification methods on 22 datasets and 3rd among 18 regression methods on 8 datasets. With Bonferroni correction held fixed, the CIF runtime ablations indicate that adaptive stopping and the number of thresholds searched have the largest measured effect on runtime: turning off adaptive stopping and using exact threshold search increase fitting time by 4.0--8.4$\times$ and 1.9--10.8$\times$, respectively, while downstream score changes are at most 0.011. Sparse high-$p$ simulations indicate that forest feature sampling can leave informative features out of many split decisions. Overall, the results support CIF as a top-$k$ feature-ranking method in the evaluated downstream prediction benchmarks.

Evaluations of LLM personas via psychometric questionnaires typically rely on aggregate scores, discarding within-instance correlation structure. We test whether this geometric structure is intrinsic or frame-dependent. Constructing within-instance correlation matrices from IPIP-50 responses, we analyze geometry on SPD manifolds under manipulated question orderings in GPT-4o simulating American and Chinese-American personas. We find that persona expression comprises two dissociable components: aggregated features (Big Five scores) degrade under randomization (21% drop) but are frame-robust; geometric features (SPD manifold) collapse under frame misalignment (42% drop) but recover substantially (to 84%) under shared frames, surpassing aggregated features (76%). This collapse-recovery pattern reveals that persona geometry is not intrinsic but a frame-dependent coordination pattern encoding information invisible to aggregation. Our findings establish a dual-nature framework for LLM personas, frame-dependent geometry versus frame-robust aggregates, necessitating frame-aware evaluation and challenging static trait conceptions.

Federated Learning (FL) is a distributed machine learning (ML) paradigm with collaboration among multiple clients without sharing data. FL is challenging under data heterogeneity and partial client participation. Learning sparse models is useful for communication and computational efficiency in FL, but it is especially difficult in the small-sample high-dimensional regime (d >> N) where optimization can yield parameter configurations that fail to generalize to unseen test data. While magnitude-based pruning doesn't account for uncertainty exploration in the parameter space, a formulation with probabilistic gates and an L0 constraint allows sampling from competing sparse configurations during training. In this work, we study entropy regularization of gate distributions as a mechanism to maintain uncertainty in sparse federated optimization by preventing early commitment to sparse support. We examine its impact under data heterogeneity, client participation heterogeneity, and sparsity. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmarks show consistent improvements over federated iterative hard thresholding (Fed-IHT) and pruning after dense federated averaging (FedAvg) training, both in statistical performance on test data and in sparsity recovery accuracy.

The 2024 Department of Justice antitrust complaint against RealPage, Inc. named five major residential REITs for coordinating algorithmic rent pricing across hundreds of thousands of apartment units in major US metropolitan areas. This paper studies whether census-tract-level corporate landlord concentration (CLC), measured from SEC EDGAR 10-K property filings geocoded to census tracts, the first such application in the literature, is associated with rent growth 2019-2023, and whether that association is larger in majority-minority neighborhoods. Rent outcomes are measured using the Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI). To account for the possibility that corporate landlords preferentially locate in neighborhoods already seeing rent appreciation, all regressions control for a fully novel Algorithmic Housing Burden Index (AHBI), a composite of pre-existing rent burden and market tightness from ACS data. Across 665 census tracts in ten US metropolitan areas, doubling REIT concentration is associated with 2.8 percentage points higher rent growth (p = 0.086, p = 0.030, HC1 robust). This association is significantly stronger in majority-minority tracts. Within the same metro, high-CLC majority-minority tracts are associated with 5.9 percentage points higher rent growth than comparable white tracts (p = 0.039). An XGBoost model predicts 44 percent of out-of-sample rent growth variance, with SHAP analysis independently confirming that CLC's contribution is positive in minority tracts and negative in white tracts. Taken all together, these findings provide the first tract-level evidence consistent with corporate landlord concentration being associated with disproportionately higher rent growth in communities of color.

Scientific reasoning is an increasingly important capability of large language models, yet improving the robustness and efficiency of training such reasoning remains a key open challenge. We study this problem in instruction-based molecular optimization, where answer-only supervised fine-tuning (SFT) collapses multi-step reasoning and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) suffers from sparse feedback. Reference-guided Policy Optimization (RePO) mitigates both by anchoring policy updates to dataset-provided references, but its effectiveness is tightly coupled to reference quality: weak or misaligned references impose a performance ceiling. To overcome this ceiling, we propose active reasoning, a paradigm in which the policy actively decides, on a per-instance basis, when to imitate a reference and when to reinforce its own discoveries, while continuously upgrading what it imitates. We instantiate this paradigm as Active Group Relative Policy Optimization (Active-GRPO), realized through two coupled mechanisms: active imitate-reinforce and active referencing. The former performs imitation learning when the reference still outperforms the policy's own candidates, and shifts to self-improvement via reinforcement learning once the policy has generated molecules that surpass the reference. The latter continuously upgrades the reference itself by replacing it with the best policy-generated candidate discovered so far, progressively raising the imitation target and ensuring that reference guidance remains informative--rather than restrictive--throughout training. Across TOMG-Bench MOLOPT, Active-GRPO improves average SR Sim from 0.0959 for GRPO and 0.1665 for RePO to 0.1773 under matched three-seed evaluation, with statistically significant gains on LogP, MR, and QED.

Safety classifiers deployed in production operate under a stationarity assumption that fails silently: when input distributions drift, accuracy degrades with no error signal until ground-truth labels arrive. We present an online monitor that detects distributional shift in classifier scores via a sliding-window KS statistic with empirically calibrated alarm thresholds. In a pre-registered factorial evaluation (4 classifiers $\times$ 5 shift conditions $\times$ 20 seeds $\times$ 2 window sizes; 800 cells), the monitor achieves 86.6% valid detection (mean latency 39.5 steps) across synthetic-onset, real-jailbreak, and adversarial regimes; a classifier $\times$ shift interaction ($η^2 = 0.185$) shows that monitoring must be tuned per classifier. Attempting to recover post-detection coverage via weighted conformal prediction exposes a failure mode: density-ratio estimation collapses for generative classifiers because logistic regression separates source from target perfectly in 3584-4096-dimensional embedding space, clipping all importance weights to zero; projecting to $\leq 32$ dimensions restores coverage. We then extend the framework to gradient-based evasion and give the first threat-model characterisation of score-disagreement monitoring as a canary. We falsify three assumptions: that architectural diversity drives the signal (false, $η^2 = 0.011$), that it is generic out-of-distribution detection (false, GCG-specific, $p < 10^{-12}$), and that an adaptive attacker can suppress it (false while the canary is confident). We derive the exact security boundary, a confidence-gated equilibrium at which a monitor-aware attacker stalls at gap $= 1/(2λ)$, and provide a calibration-free scan martingale achieving false-alarm rate $\leq 1\%$ across all classifiers with no per-model tuning.

Eli Lilly faces a congressional investigation into its China clinical trials at People's Liberation Army hospitals and Xinjiang facilities amid biotechnology competition concerns.

The Sliced Wasserstein (SW) distance has emerged as a computationally attractive alternative to the Wasserstein distance by leveraging one-dimensional optimal transport along random projections. Standard estimators of the SW distance rely on Monte Carlo averages of one-dimensional Wasserstein distances computed via quantile functions, which require sorting projected samples and access to full datasets. In this work, we introduce a new class of estimators for the Sliced Wasserstein distance based on cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of projected measures, that avoid sorting and scale via massive dataset parallelism. This class includes several estimators, some of them being indexed by hyperparameters controlling their variance or smoothness. We show that they are especially well suited to scenarios in which CDFs are more tractable than quantile functions, such as mixtures of Gaussians, and moreover that they are also naturally compatible with federated learning, since CDFs of projected data can be computed and aggregated locally without requiring the exchange of raw samples.

We study the leading-order fluctuation of stochastic gradient Euler-Maruyama estimators for generalized non-reversible Langevin dynamics. Under structural assumptions tailored to the small-stepsize central limit theorem and under an unbiased stochastic gradient oracle, we prove that the empirical average over a horizon of order the inverse squared stepsize satisfies a central limit theorem in the vanishing-stepsize regime. The limiting variance is characterized through the Poisson equation of the limiting full-gradient diffusion. We then rewrite this constant in an operator form that links it to the continuous-time asymptotic variance and, under standard operator-theoretic assumptions, derive a sufficient condition under which an anti-symmetric perturbation strictly reduces the leading-order fluctuation constant relative to the reversible baseline. We also identify bounded smooth predictive observables that re directly covered by the main theorem. As a separate Gaussian calculation beyond the bounded-test-function regime, we obtain closed-form formulas for quadratic Hamiltonians and linear observables. The framework covers non-reversible Langevin dynamics and augmented-state examples including Hessian-free high-resolution dynamics and a positive-definite subclass of gradient-adjusted underdamped Langevin dynamics that allow stochastic gradients. Numerical experiments on basic examples and Bayesian linear regression using synthetic data, and Bayesian logistic regression using real data support the predicted Gaussian fluctuations and show that the non-reversible schemes consistently reduce the root mean squared error (RMSE) relative to their reversible baselines.

Effective sub-typing (also known as grouping or clustering) of patients using their electronic health record (EHR) data can greatly inform precision medicine efforts. However, subtyping temporal EHR datasets is known to be challenging due to inherent EHR issues, including complexity and irregularity. In this study, we propose a self-supervised Mamba-based model that learns effective EHR representations and enables enhanced patient subtyping. We evaluate the proposed model on public and private real-world EHR datasets to classify the data based on the available labels and subtype patients based on the representations learned from the model. Through an extensive set of experiments, we demonstrate that our model's design choices lead to better performance compared to competitive baseline models for prediction. Moreover, we evaluate several clustering techniques to demonstrate that our findings offer valuable insights into subtyping patients based on temporal records from EHR models\footnote{Our implementations are available at https://github.com/healthylaife/triplet_mamba.